JOB ADS REBOUND AHEAD OF RBA MEETING

Written on the 4 May 2015

JOB ADS REBOUND AHEAD OF RBA MEETING

JOB advertising bounced back 2.3 per cent in April after falling for the first time in ten months in March, according to ANZ.

Research from the bank shows job ads have now increased for 18 consecutive months in trend terms, although the pace of growth has slowed since the end of last year.

ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan says the positive position circumstances may halt the Reserve Bank's decision to cut rates this month.

"We continue to expect further monetary policy easing given soft business and consumer confidence, a negative outlook for non-mining investment, and likely further job losses across mining and manufacturing," Hogan says.

"However, a more positive starting point for the labour market, a re-acceleration in investor housing credit and RBA comments that monetary policy is less effective than it has been in previous episodes, cause us to acknowledge that a cut in May might be a line-ball call."

The growing popularity of internet advertising spurred the increase, while newspaper spots fell 2.5 per cent last month.

Queensland reported a 0.7 per cent decline in newspaper ads last month, in comparison to Western Australia at 18 per cent the largest decrease in Australia.

Mild growth in New South Wales, South Australia and Northern Territory was not enough to counteract the trend, with Tasmania also falling 10 per cent.

"The release of the March labour force survey contained revisions which increased employments and lowered the unemployment rate, painting a better overall picture of the labour market," Hogan says.

"But despite this improvement, the unemployment rate is remaining stubbornly higher than the trend increase in job ads would suggest.

"As described in last week's Australian Economic Insight, we believe this divergence is partly due to a high level of job losses in particular sectors, which suggests that job ads may be a more appropriate indicator of labour demand in the non-mining, non-manufacturing sectors at present.

"Retrenchments and strong growth in part-time labour supply may also be driving a reduction in the ability of the labour market to match jobs with workers."


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