THE WINNERS AND LOSERS OF 2015
Written on the 12 January 2015
IBISWORLD has unveiled its crystal ball detailing insights into the 2015 workforce.
Released today by the business information analysts, the report states "some industries are set for a bumper year", but "there are many that will be dreading the year ahead".
Petroleum exploration, mining and construction machinery manufacturing, cigarette manufacturing, motion picture and video distribution, and electricity distribution are tipped to lose out this year.
Crashing oil and commodity prices, offshoring cigarette manufacturing due to higher Australian regulatory barriers, new media formats such as Netflix, and the rising cost of retail energy are being held accountable for these slumps.
Conversely, coal seam gas extraction, online grocery sales, fast fashion, private equity and hydroponic crop farming are among the industries expected to grow most significantly.
IBISWorld senior industry analyst David Whytcross says the coal seam gas extraction industry is currently undergoing a significant transformation, with its industry revenue forecasted to rise 148 per cent over the next year to reach $1.83 billion.
Forecasted revenue of the other leading growth industries pale in comparison to this, with online grocery sales predicted to climb 14.6 per cent, fast fashion 10.4 per cent, private equity 10.1 per cent and hydroponic crop farming 5.6 per cent.
"The opening of the domestic east coast gas market to the international market is expected to push gas prices higher particularly as Australia is well-positioned to meet strong demand from Japan, China and South Korea, which are the world's largest three natural gas importers," says Whytcross.
Queensland companies such as Brisbane's Senex Energy Limited (ASX: SXY), which is operating in Cooper Basin, hold a majority of the coal seam reserves in Australia.
Whytcross expects that supply to Asian markets will be boosted as the Curtis Island LNG plant becomes operational.
"Once operational, the Curtis Island LNG plant will be the world's first project to turn coal seam gas into liquefied natural gas, which will be a boon to operators of newly developed coal seam gas fields in the Cooper Basin," says Whytcross.
Other growth industries online grocery sales and fast fashion are being driven by the habits of time-poor consumers who are seeking more affordable options.
"While grocery shopping is not a difficult undertaking as there are supermarkets scattered across all pockets of the country, time-conscious consumers are increasingly realising the benefits of online grocery shopping," he says.
"The increased prevalence of click-and-collect options and greater comfort with purchasing perishable items like fresh fruit online are expected to boost industry revenue over the coming year."
Back on the business front, merger and acquisition activity is expected to rise in 2015, which would count for another successful year in private equity.
"Growth in M&A activity in Australia coincides with greater global interest in M&A, as Europe and particularly the United States are emerging from a prolonged period of crisis and subdued growth," says Whytcross.
IBISWorld collates its reports based on assessment of Australia's 500 industries that it charts information for.