RISE IN JOBS ADS NO REASON FOR JOY
Written on the 8 September 2015
A RISE in job ads over August has failed to stem the slowdown in jobs growth in the second half, although overall numbers appear to be the best since 2013, according to the ANZ.
Latest figures from the ANZ Job Ads Series shows job advertisements bounced 1 per cent month-on-month in August, seasonally adjusted.
The latest figures bring the rise in job ads over the year to 8.9 per cent, seasonally adjusted, with 140,414 ads placed on the internet and in newspapers nationally over the month.
The figure is up from 128,880 a year ago and almost level with the 140,781 recorded in August 2013. It also compares with 180,247 in 2008-09, which represents a 21.8 per cent slump in job ads over the past six years.
The latest monthly gain comes on the back of a 0.5 per cent fall in July, however, in trend terms, job ads were up just 0.4 per cent.
This is considerably slower than trend growth rates of above 1 per cent seen in the second half of last year.
"The bounce in job advertising is a good sign for now," says ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan.
"The trend measure, however, suggests there has been a slowdown in growth since late last year.
"This is consistent with our expectations for employment growth to moderate in the second half of the year, after a strong first half.
"The recent strength in employment growth has been concentrated in a range of labour-intensive services industries.
"However, job losses in mining, mining-related construction and manufacturing are likely to weigh on employment growth over the next year."
Hogan says growth in the Australian economy remains patchy.
"GDP grew only 2 per cent year-on-year in the June quarter, the weakest growth rate seen in the last two years.
"With the drag from mining investment likely to continue to weigh on the economy, and non-mining activity also expanding only modestly given weak growth in both household incomes and business profits, the economy is likely to continue to grow below trend over the next year or so.
"This suggests that employment growth is unlikely to pick-up meaningfully in the near-term."