RISE IN JOB ADS POINTS TO SOFT LANDING
Written on the 6 October 2015
DESPITE a fall in the number of newspaper job ads, total job advertisements have continued to rise since August, according to ANZ.
Figures from ANZ's Job Ads Series show a job advertisement jump of 3.9 per cent month-on-month in September, seasonally adjusted, after rising by a solid 1.3 per cent in August.
In trend terms, job ads were up 1 per cent month-on-month, while growth since mid-year now appears stronger than previously.
Internet job ads also grew 4 per cent month-on-month in September, part of a larger trend which saw them increase 13.7 per cent from the 132,663 recorded a year earlier.
Despite having risen for two consecutive months, the number of newspaper job ads fell 2.7 per cent from August, and 19.6 per cent from the same time last year.
"The positive trend in job advertising is a sign that the economy is so far adjusting relatively well to significant headwinds from falling commodity prices and mining investment," ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan says.
"While non-mining firms remain fairly reticent to increase capital spending, the demand for labour in a range of services industries has strengthened.
"Activity in these industries has been supported by the sharp depreciation of the Australian dollar, which has redirected spending back towards the domestic economy, and by low interest rates, particularly through robust housing market activity and its flow-on effects."
Hogan says growth will likely decelerate in the coming year.
"While we expect momentum in non-mining activity to remain quite good in the near-term, our view is that the significant support to growth from the factors above will wane heading into 2016.
"For this reason, we expect employment growth to remain reasonably healthy over the remainder of 2015 but to then soften next year.
"This is likely to prompt the Reserve Bank to provide a little more monetary policy support to prevent the unemployment rate from rising further."