JOB ADS RISE, BUT DEMAND PUTS PRESSURE ON
Written on the 9 February 2015 by Laura Daquino
JOB advertisements are on the rise, up 10 per cent over the year to January, but the outlook for employment is still mixed.
According to ANZ research, job advertisements were up 1.3 per cent last month compared to January 2014.
Internet ads have grown 14.8 per cent year on year, the fastest rate since April 2011, while newspaper job ads have declined 23.8 per cent year on year.
New South Wales "outperformed" overall and was the only state that didn't see a decline in newspaper job ads.
ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan (pictured) says the company still "remains cautious about interpretation of official labour market data" despite the upwards trends observed.
Hogan's comments came at around the same time Prime Minister Tony Abbott addressed the Press Club with a claim that his government was creating 4000 new jobs a week.
This is in spite of unemployment climbing above 6 per cent last year according to the ABS. Jobs growth doesn't take into account population growth, neither does the ABS single out industries in its data.
"The eighth consecutive monthly rise in ANZ job ads is an encouraging sign that new labour demand continues to improve in certain sectors of the Australian economy," says Hogan.
"A gap between job ads and the official data remains however, most likely reflecting a higher rate of retrenchments in industries such as manufacturing and resources, which suggests that overall labour demand is struggling to keep pace with the flow of new workers into the economy."
Hogan says the recent RBA cash rate cut resounded as good news overall, but the impact of this on economic growth is "marginal".
"The impact of a 25 basis point cut however is marginal in terms of growth outcomes, and the growth outlook also remains highly dependent on the path of commodity prices and the currency," he says.
"Importantly, the now softer inflation trajectory allows the RBA to support the domestic economy further without threatening the inflation target.
"A further easing of monetary policy is highly likely, and we expect a follow-up rate cut from the RBA, most likely in March."
The ANZ Job Advertisements Series employs the same methodology of the ABS for its monthly employment data, a concurrent seasonal adjustment.
ANZ's research takes into account data from SEEK and the Department of Employment online, and 11 of Australia's major newspapers offline.